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傅莹万字长文：朝核问题的历史演进与前景展望
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Introduction
The author is the chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress of China, and the chief expert of the National Institute of International Strategy Affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
作者系中国全国人大外事委员会主任委员、中国社科院国家全球战略智库首席专家。
不久前，我们领略了在“两会”上温柔而有原则的傅莹女士的风采。今天让我们一起分享这篇由傅莹女士执笔的文章，跟随她走近朝核问题的历史演进与前景展望。
傅莹：朝核问题的历史演进与前景展望
The Korean Nuclear Issue: Past, Present, and Future
The Korean nuclear issue is the most complicated and uncertain factor for Northeast Asian security. It has now become the focus of attention in the Asia Pacific and even the world at large. Now, as the issue continues to heat up, one frequently raised question is: Why can’t China take greater responsibility and make North Korea stop its nuclear weapons program?
朝鲜半岛核问题是东北亚安全局势中最具复杂性和最具不确定性的因素，也是当前亚太乃至国际社会高度聚焦的安全热点。随着朝核问题的升温，国际社会上不断有人在问：中国为什么不能在管住朝鲜上负起更大责任？
China started to mediate on the Korean nuclear issue and host talks in 2003, at the United States’ sincere request. As a developing country, China upholds its five principles of peaceful coexistence. On the Korean nuclear issue, which has a direct bearing over regional security, China’s position is to strongly oppose nuclear proliferation.
中国是自2003年起应美方要求斡旋半岛核问题并且主持多边谈判的。作为发展中国家，中国奉行和平共处五项原则。在朝核这个涉及地区安全的问题上，中国的立场是坚决反对核扩散。
Upon taking up its role as a mediator, China firmly requested the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, commonly referred to as North Korea) to stop its nuclear weapons development while requesting other concerned parties, especially the U.S., to address the DPRK’s legitimate security concerns. But the deep mistrust between the U.S. and the DPRK made it very hard for any consensus or agreement made during the years of negotiations to be effectively implemented. China had been working hard to play its role both as a mediator and a party to U.N. sanctions, but it did not have the leverage to force either the U.S. or the DPRK to assume their respective responsibilities.
自从承担起斡旋责任以来，中方明确要求朝鲜停止核研发，也督促其他各方，尤其是美方，关注和解决朝鲜提出的合理安全关切。然而，美国与朝鲜之间深刻的互不信任使得多年来谈判达成的协议总是得不到落实。中方坚持不懈地履行了自己的责任，努力斡旋，并根据联合国安理会的决议，参加了对朝鲜核导活动的制裁。但是，中国在督促美国和朝鲜承担起应尽责任的问题上缺乏强制力。
Without holding the key to
the DPRK’s security concerns, China has no leverage to convince this foreign
nation to stop its nuclear program. The U.S., which the DPRK sees as the source
of threats to its security, has been neither interested nor willing to consider
responding to the DPRK’s security concerns. As the two sides reached an
impasse, the DPRK took the opportunity to move forward with its program and,
since 2005, has carried out five nuclear tests and numerous missile tests. In
the meantime, the U.N. Security Council has stepped up sanctions, and the U.S.
and the Republic of Korea (ROK, commonly referred to as South Korea) have been
carrying out heightened military exercises to exert greater military pressure
on the DPRK. Consequently, tensions are now running high and the channel for
talks is closed, and the situation is increasingly dangerous.
中国不掌握解决朝核问题的钥匙，在说服朝方停止核项目上也缺乏关键筹码；而被朝鲜视为安全威胁来源的美国，对朝方安全诉求这个解决核问题的关键条件不愿予以考虑。美朝双方的意图南辕北辙，致使朝鲜半岛核问题陷入困境。朝方伺机推动核导发展进程，2005年以来已经进行了五次核试验和难以计数的导弹试射。与此同时，联合国安理会通过的制裁也层层加码，美韩针对朝鲜的大规模军事演习不断升级。半岛对抗和对立的气氛日趋紧张，和平谈判迟迟无法重启，目前的局势相当危险。
On the international stage, the main players are nation states who enjoy sovereign rights endowed by the U.N. Charter and international law. Powerful states may have greater influence over the international situation, but they should also bear the consequences of what they say or do. Smaller or weaker states may counter or respond to pressure from powerful states, but there is a price to pay for doing so. The international situation often evolves as the result of actions and counteractions by states over specific issues, whereby tension between states can rise and even intensify, leading the situation in an unexpected direction.
在国际舞台上，民族国家是国际关系中的主要行为体，享有国际法赋予的主权权利。强国通常拥有比较大的主动权，同时也必须承受自己言行所引发的结果。小国或弱国会对强国的压力做出反制性应对，同样也会付出代价。国际形势就是在国与国之间对具体问题的处置和应对所引发的波澜涌动，国家之间出现的紧张关系往往会在这个过程中相互折冲，甚至导致局势走向与预期不同的方向。
That is why China believes that peaceful negotiation is the “Pareto optimal” path. Although it may not meet the optimal demands of any party, it would bring maximal benefits to all parties with minimal cost. This would of course call for all parties, the U.S. included, to take their due responsibilities and make the necessary compromises. The reason that no results have been achieved to date is precisely because of the failure to implement negotiated agreements and the suspension of negotiations.
因此，中国方面认为通过和谈解决核问题是一个“帕累托最优选择”。虽然不能满足当事各方的最高诉求，但却能以最小的代价实现利益最大化，当然这也需要各方都承担责任，都做出应有的妥协。目前和谈未能取得成效，恰是由于已达成的协议得不到全面执行，并由此导致谈判的中止。
China remains committed to a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula. It has been and will continue to work to safeguard regional peace and stability. China stands for dialogue as the right route to address the Korean nuclear issue. North and South Korea are geographically connected and both are China’s close neighbors; North Korea, in particular, shares 1,300 kilometers (808 miles) of common border with China. Any military conflict or disturbance in this region will endanger peace and stability, inflict huge damage to innocent people, and may even escalate tensions beyond control. The international community has witnessed enough bitter outcomes caused by the unwise use of military action over the past decades.
无论过去还是将来，为了维护地区和平和稳定，中国一直致力于推动实现半岛无核化，支持通过对话妥善解决朝核问题。半岛南北双方间只有一线之隔，又都是中国的近邻，中国与朝鲜的边界线有1300公里的，如果半岛双方发生武装冲突，必然危及地区和平，导致大量无辜平民的严重伤亡，并且使事态滑向难以掌控的方向。过去几十年在世界许多地区发生的轻率动武带来的教训是深刻的。
This article intends to revisit the recent history of the Korean nuclear issue, including how the Three-Party Talks evolved to Six-Party Talks and then broke down—a process in which I had been personally involved at its early stage. The goal is for readers to better understand the origin as well as the trajectory of multilateral efforts regarding the Korean nuclear issue: How did things reach this point? How and why were potential moments of successful resolution missed? Hopefully recounting this period of history can be of some guidance for making wiser choices in the future.
本文试图梳理近年来朝核谈判的经纬，包括从三方会谈到六方会谈再到会谈破裂的历程，所讲述的事情有些是笔者亲身经历的。本着尽可能地还原历史真实面目的态度，笔者希望帮助人们了解：事情何以发展到今天这个地步？和谈成功的机会何以被一再错过？但愿这些回望可以为将来更明智的选择提供借鉴。
As the Chinese saying goes, “He who tied the bell should be the one who unties it.” To open the rusty lock of the Korean nuclear issue, we should look for the right key.
解铃还须系铃人，要打开朝核问题的“锈锁”，还是要找到那把钥匙。
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